Well, we took a 2.5 hour break. Went down and fed the geese & ducks and then went shopping. Now enjoying some merlot as the light fades on another fine Idaho day.
There's lots to report. I thought I should start from scratch again rather than continue adding stuff to the bottom of the previous post. Actually, I should be using Twitter and simple code it into the left column. I might get industrious and do that. On the other hand, I might just drink wine and blow it off.
OK, let's have a recap here. Maricopa, Coconino and Navajo Counties have all declared a state of emergency. Believe it or not, there's various degrees of tornado watches and warnings posted in Arizona! Streams are rising very quickly. The New River gauge was indeed destroyed. I-40 is progged to close at 6 pm. The Weather Channel is doing a live remote from Flagstaff. NWS forecast centers predict 'major flooding' on Agua Fria, Sycamore Crk. nr Ft. McDowell, Verde Rvr. Oak Creek. (Uh, huh.) FAA ordered ground stop at Sky Harbor Tornado watch in Phoenix - very rare. Evacuations have begun in Sedona--Oak Creek expected to peak at midnight about 22 feet, close to 1993 level.
Click here to read the latest out of Flagstaff.
(5:47) OK, we're going back to the time stamps and such. As we expected, the Agua Fria has taken Center Stage. I can't remember who I said this too earlier this week but I can remember what I said. I said, "If I lived in Black Canyon City, I would be scared, VERY scared." Well, the chickens are coming home to roost and all hell is breaking loose in Black Canyon City. The last reading on the Agua Fria there is over 20,000 cfs. The gauge ht. is about 21 feet and the flow is rising roughly a 1,000 cfs every 15 minutes. The total flow has doubled in about 3 hours. I'm not sure it is going exponential but I sure think it is. Bear in mind this point has a 1,111 sq. mi drainage area. ALL of this drainage is located at Ground Zero of this storm. ALL of this drainage was saturated prior to today. There is a LOT more water coming downhill.
Click here for the link to watch it yourself.
(5:57) Hey, here's some potential good news. I think Tonto Creek might be peaking. Uh, huh. In the last 15 minutes, it's risen only 600 cfs. During the same interval fort the past few hours it's been rising as much as 1500 cfs. In other words, it's rate of rise appears to be slowing. That could be from the fact that it DID NOT rain on the snowpack! This is a good thing, as Martha would say. If the Tonto can hold a peak in the 30's, there's hope for the whole state.
(6:07) There's a widespread rumor on the internet (mostly Arizona Twitter accts.) that Gov. Jan Brewer is poised to declare a statewide emergency. We shall see.