Thursday, November 11, 2010
WARNING: Your eyes will glaze over and your brain will turn freeze if you read any farther. Read at your own risk! Protect your forehead in case you pass out and your head smacks hard down on your desk. WONKY WORDS AHEAD!
Normally, we'd put this stuff over on the Geek Weather blog. People who read the Geek Weather thing are, well...Geeks, what can I say? Geeks don't mind Wonky Words. In fact, they actually love them. But, I digress.
When it comes time to travel anywhere, we become glued to weather forecasts and tea leaves, not necessarily in that order. We cling to the belief that we can somehow gaze into our crystal ball and see the future, at least if the crystal ball isn't suffering from an occluded front or perhaps a sudden squall.
So, here's this morning's Wonky Word Whazzup from various NWS Offices around our Neck O' Da West. We will put our assessment of their words below the ALL CAPS writing. Remember, only truly professional geeky wonks get PAID to type in ALL CAPS!
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE OFF PACIFIC
COAST AND GREAT BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDGE THROUGH THE FLOW TO KEEP CONTINUED
INSTANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY THE MODELS BREAK DOWN WITH THE ECMWF AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DROPPING A STRONG LOW DOWN THE BC CANADA COAST TO
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAVE PRIMARILY NORTHERN UT SUSCEPTIBLE TO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT DROPPING ONE SUCH WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GRAZING NORTHERN UT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SECONDARY
FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. NEITHER OF THESE
FEATURES LOOK TO BRING MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF UTAH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF 130W SHOULD KEEP THE JET
STREAM NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AND HAVE REMOVE POPS.
AFTER MONDAY SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL WITH MODELS DIFFERING AS TO
THE EXACT FINAL CONFIGURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL EASE UP TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES ARE ABOUT NIL.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS DO NOT PICK UP ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES HEADING
TOWARD OUR AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN A DEEP COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ARRIVES OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST.
DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THICKNESSES WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NORMAL.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL THEN FALL UNDER UNSETTLED AND MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE AREA WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BY MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH GFS SHOWING MINOR LULL
BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO UT/CO WHILE EUROPEAN KEEPS
PRECIP ACROSS CWA THRU REMAINDER OF LONG-TERM. TOO MANY
DISCREPANCIES ATTM SO HEDGING BET AND KEPT SLT CHC SNOW OVER NRN MTNS
AND UINTAS THRU WED NIGHT. TEMPS IN LONG-TERM WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AS CLOUD COVER AND NLY FLOW KEEPS COOL AIR POURING INTO REGION.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ATTENDANT MODEST THICKNESS
INCREASES AND WARMING...WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS APPROACHING 50 BY
AFTERNOON. 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL STAY NORTH OF
NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND TRIMMED DOWN POP VALUES
ACCORDINGLY. DRY AND RELATIVELY MILDER WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR 50 FOR THE VALLEYS...EVEN SOME MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
OK, if you have survived to read this far, you know you're a GEEK AT HEART! Hooray! All of the above jibberish tells us one thing: It's going to be a mighty fine travel day next Tuesday. We're no longer worried about either having to leave early or being delayed because of a semi-major storm. Nope, that ain't gonna happen. Yeah, there might be a few flakes in the vicinity. (Hey, this IS Idaho, ya know, flakes flourish here, especially potato flakes.) Anyway, just in case at least some stray LBR was wondering how we arrive at our travel decision(s), this is how it's done.
You can see the GFS computer model's "take" on next Tuesday in the top graphic. Even the five day Quantative Precipitation Forecast leaves our travel route largely unmolested. Looks all clear. We'll keep an eye on it but, by and large, this type of jibberish says we've got a GREEN LIGHT TO GO! Yippee!
Posted by John Parsons at 8:56 AM